The End of Staatsräson?
On the Partial Weapons Embargo Against Israel
Dear Reader,
On Friday at midday, the federal government’s press office sent out a short statement to journalists with the subject line: “Chancellor Friedrich Merz comments on developments in Gaza.”
The message, just four paragraphs long, is already being described as one of the most significant moments in Germany’s relationship with Israel in decades. The opening paragraph reiterated Germany’s position since the Gaza War began: that the remaining hostages must be released and Hamas disarmed.
The second paragraph, however, dropped a political bombshell. The “even tougher military action” announced by the Israeli government the night before—namely, the occupation of another city in Gaza—meant that “it is becoming increasingly unclear how these goals are to be achieved.”
“Under these circumstances, the German government will not approve any exports of military equipment that could be used in the Gaza Strip until further notice,” the statement declared.
For the first time since the war began almost two years ago—indeed, for the first time in decades—the German government was prepared to publicly deny weapons to the Jewish state while it fights enemies bent on its destruction. For Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU), unequivocal support for Israel is woven into the party’s DNA, a cornerstone of Germany’s rehabilitation into the democratic West after the horrors of the Second World War.
The announcement of a partial arms embargo was thus bound to provoke strong reactions within his own ranks. After issuing his brief statement, Merz is understood to have left for a mini-break at the exclusive Tegernsee, where his family owns a house.
The statement’s vagueness sparked speculation in the press about whether it amounted to a full embargo. The reference to weapons that “could be used in Gaza” sounded so sweeping that some CDU members wondered whether all arms sales to Israel would now be frozen.
Roderich Kiesewetter, formerly the CDU’s top man on the Bundestag’s intelligence committee before being ousted by Merz in an internal power struggle, called the decision “a serious political and strategic mistake.”
“Hamas and the Iranian proxies must be destroyed and disarmed: That requires weapons,” Kiesewetter told the Jüdische Allgemeine, accusing the government of “bowing to an anti-Semitic mob on the streets” and to “Hamas’s ruthless propaganda.”
An editorial in the same newspaper wrote that Germany’s oft-repeated pledge that Israel’s security was part of the country’s Staatsräson “is now dead.” The promise that “Germany has an everlasting responsibility for the wellbeing of the Jewish people and their homeland obviously doesn’t exist anymore,” the piece stated.
Over the weekend, other senior figures from the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, voiced public opposition. CSU leader Markus Söder called the move “completely wrong” and said he would be speaking to the chancellor about reversing it.
It quickly emerged that no one in the CDU/CSU—apart from Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul—had been consulted beforehand. Few supported the decision, either. According to Der Spiegel, the two most senior CDU/CSU cabinet members—Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt and Economy Minister Katherina Reiche—had repeatedly opposed a weapons embargo in cabinet meetings.
On Sunday, Merz gave a hastily arranged interview to ARD in which he downplayed the significance of the measure, saying it should be narrowly understood as a response to a single Israeli decision to penetrate further into Gaza. “The fundamentals of the German-Israeli relationship haven’t changed and won’t change,” he insisted.
What impact will Merz’s decision have?
In practical terms, almost none. While arms sales data is classified, the available numbers suggest Germany quietly stopped providing Israel with weapons usable on the ground in Gaza back in 2024. The partial embargo leaves unaffected naval equipment—an area where Germany remains a key supplier.
What often goes unmentioned is that Germany is as dependent on Israeli military technology as the reverse. In 2023, Berlin bought €4 billion worth of Arrow 3 missiles to plug major gaps in its air defence system. These same missiles were recently used to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles — i.e. they are battle-tested and proven effective. Israel could withhold delivery of these systems in response, although that is unlikely.
The bigger impact is symbolic: a public rebuke of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war strategy. The move likely aims to align Germany with Europe’s other major powers—France and the UK—both of which have gone further in aggravating Netanyahu by signalling their readiness to recognise Palestinian statehood. Since taking office, Merz has invested heavily in the so-called E3 (Berlin–Paris–London) format to present a united European front, particularly on Ukraine.
Domestically, however, Merz risks another party revolt. Senior CDU figures are frustrated that little attention is given to the seven German nationals still held by Hamas. They fear any hint of wavering support for Israel will embolden the group and complicate hostage negotiations. Their preferred strategy: pressure Egypt and Qatar to further isolate Hamas in the Arab world.
The decision also raises questions about the Chancellery’s own assessment of conditions in Gaza. Just days before the embargo, Merz’s chief of staff, Thorsten Frei, dismissed claims that Israel was causing famine there: “The reality is that more aid deliveries arrive in the Gaza Strip every day than are necessary to avert famine,” he said, warning against falling for “the terrorists’ tricks.” Merz’ weapons embargo, on the other hand, suggests that Berlin does actually hold Israel responsible for the food shortages in Gaza.
Merz’s secrecy around the decision points to a leadership problem within his own party. Presumably, he feared leaks to the staunchly pro-Israel Bild Zeitung before he could frame the announcement himself. He has already suffered several setbacks in his first 100 days as chancellor: failing to secure enough Bundestag votes for confirmation, and being forced to withdraw support for the SPD’s constitutional court pick after CDU lawmakers revolted.
When the Bundestag reconvenes this autumn, we will see just how rebellious the CDU mood truly is.
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Sincerely,
Jörg Luyken
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Yes, if you weave unequivocal support for a sovereign country into your DNA, you are going to find yourself in a pickle if that country goes rogue. The lesson learned is that unequivocal support is never a good idea. I strive to lend my wife my unequivocal support in most matters but would have to draw the line at genocide.
In a way i pity the poor Germans, so earnest in their desire to atone for previous atrocities they end up becoming apologists for current ones.
It's not just the politicians, here is an article from another Berlin-based journalist on the German media's complicity in smearing Palestinian journalists, leading to their murder:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/13/german-media-outlets-israel-murder-journalists-gaza