10 years of 'wir schaffen das'
Was Merkel right to open Germany's borders to refugees?
Dear Reader,
Ten years ago this week, Angela Merkel uttered three words that came to define her chancellorship.
With the phrase Wir schaffen das, Merkel sought to reassure the German public that the country would be able to manage the sharp rise in refugees arriving at its borders. Her words followed the discovery of dozens of refugees suffocated to death in the back of a lorry in Austria — a tragedy that had triggered a wave of sympathy for Syrians fleeing their country’s brutal war.
But the phrase quickly travelled far beyond Germany. Around the world it was read as an invitation, a signal that Germany’s borders were open to those escaping war.
In the months that followed, more than a million people, predominantly Syrians, arrived. The mass influx was eventually slowed in spring 2016 when Merkel struck a deal with Turkey: billions in EU funding in exchange for Ankara stemming the flow of people.
Even so, arrivals remained well above pre-2015 levels. During the Scholz years, a further million refugees from Ukraine arrived, alongside hundreds of thousands more from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. By 2024, some 3.5 million refugees were estimated to be living in Germany — the highest number since the late 1940s, when millions of ethnic Germans were expelled from Eastern Europe.
The early weeks of the so-called Flüchtlingskrise were marked by an extraordinary swell of public solidarity. At Munich Central Station, where many refugees first arrived, locals offered warm meals, blankets and toys for children.
That initial generosity, though, was soon accompanied by a second phenomenon: the rise of the AfD. Polling below 5 percent before the summer of 2015, the right-wing party doubled its support within a year. Its popularity surged further after New Year’s Eve 2015/16, when hundreds of women reported sexual assaults at Cologne’s central square, many describing the perpetrators as groups of men of North African appearance.
Two new words entered the German lexicon in 2015. Wilkommenskultur captured the willingness of ordinary people to help. Kontrollverlust summed up the growing fear that the government had lost control over who was entering the country.
To this day, Germans still argue over whether Merkel was right to say Wir schaffen das.
Under Friedrich Merz, the CDU has sought to distance itself from her legacy. This summer Merz declared that, “in the sense she was talking about, it is clear that we haven’t been able to cope.” His general secretary, Carsten Linnemann, struck a similarly pessimistic note: “Since 2015, six and a half million people have come to us, and less than half are in work today — I find that unsatisfactory, to say the least.”
Yet labour market integration can be seen as one of the success stories of the past decade. According to the Institute for Labour Market Research (IAB), two-thirds of working-age refugees who arrived in 2015 are now employed — not far off the national average. Among men the figure is even higher, at 76 percent. These numbers have surpassed early forecasts, which had predicted that only half would find jobs within ten years. Roughly 200,000 Syrians from that year have also since obtained German citizenship, evidence of steady employment and strong language skills.
Where Germany has fared less well is public safety. The sense of Kontrollverlust persists, fuelled by a series of violent attacks at festivals and public gatherings. Concrete barriers now block the entrances to town squares across the country — a reminder that mass migration from countries where radical Islamists still preach hatred of the West was more complex that people originally wanted to believe. Whenever police release their annual crime figure - which show an overrepresentation of men from countries like Tunisia and Syrian - debate flares over whether the new arrivals brought a greater propensity for violence, or whether factors like poverty and the xenophobia of those reporting the crimes are more relevant.
When asked this month by ARD whether “we managed it”, Merkel responded: “It is a process — but we have achieved a lot, and what is still to be done will have to be done.”
Others take a dimmer view. Former Austrian chancellor Sebastian Kurz wrote in Die Welt that “the strain on social welfare systems, growing parallel societies, and a noticeable increase in violent crime are direct consequences of the Kontrollverlust that has been politically accepted in recent years.”
The German public remains split. A recent Forsa poll found that 46 percent now believe Merkel was right to open the borders, while 41 percent say she should have ordered them closed. A majority — 54 percent — believe the 2015 influx caused problems in their community, while 36 percent say they saw none.
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Result of our last poll: Should Germany send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine? 🇺🇦 🇩🇪
Yes - 82%
No - 18%
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Members’ corner
Boots on the ground
The US’ loss of interest in Europe will leave a security vacuum that other democracies will have to fill. Given its economic weight and central position on the continent, Germany is predestined to take that role.
Sincerely,
Jörg Luyken
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