Silence on Venezuela - a wise strategy?

Plus: Berlin power cut + state coalition collapse

Dear Reader,

The US decision to abduct the leader of Venezuela, followed almost immediately by threats to take over Greenland, has once again opened up the debate about how Germany should act in the new, gloves-off world of international politics.

The response, it seems, is a confusing mixture of trying to reassure the public that things aren’t all that bad, while also sending unparalleled diplomatic warnings across the Atlantic.

Although the UN Charter is crystal clear on the use of force against another sovereign nation, Chancellor Friedrich Merz responded to the abduction of Nicolás Maduro by calling it “legally complex”.

“The legal classification of the US operation is complex,” he wrote on X (Twitter). “We are taking our time with this. International law remains the benchmark.”

Germany, he added, had not recognised Maduro as Venezuela’s rightful leader after he forged the results of the 2024 election, accusing him of having “dragged his country into ruin”.

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) was similarly cautious. Saying that there were “various things that we need to take into account,” he pointed out that the International Criminal Court is currently investigating the Maduro government over the oppression of its people.

Armin Laschet (CDU), chairman of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee, went further still. Appearing on public broadcaster ZDF, he gave viewers a history lesson. He said that the abduction of Maduro was “almost exactly the same” as a decision taken by George H. W. Bush to abduct Panama’s leader, Manuel Noriega, in 1989. Even the timing shortly after Christmas was similar, he noted. Such operations have been conducted “again and again” by US presidents and were (yes, you guessed it) “legally complicated.”

The careful choreography of CDU statements suggested a party reaching for familiar Cold War and world policeman reference points — and hoping they would still hold.

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Inside the government, the Social Democrats voiced dissent to this consensus — vice-chancellor Lars Klingbeil (SPD) stated that Maduro’s repression of his people was no justification for “ignoring international law.”

Still, there was no suggestion that Germany should do anything concrete about the abduction.

The German government’s attempts to frame the Maduro abduction in the language of international law weren’t helped by Donald Trump, who said bluntly that it was primarily about oil. It was further undermined by the US president’s subsequent claims that various countries with legitimately elected leaders could be next.

But Germany went into full panic mode when Trump administration insiders, buoyed by their apparent victory, started to leer in the direction of Greenland. Speaking on CNN, Trump aide Stephen Miller insisted that Greenland — which belongs to Denmark and is part of NATO — “should be part of the United States” and that “nobody is going to fight the United States” for it.

For much of the German media, this was the final proof — Trump isn’t an uncouth George H. W. Bush, he is a demagogue whose criteria for fighting someone aren’t how authoritarian they are but how much wealth can be extracted from under their feet.

Until now, Berlin has publicly ignored Trump’s awkward insistence that he wants Greenland. This time, amid fevered speculation about what Trump might be planning next, it saw itself as compelled to respond.

On Tuesday, Merz and seven other European leaders issued a remarkable statement declaring that “it is for Denmark and Greenland — and only them — to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” Sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders are principles of the UN Charter that “we will not stop defending,” the statement said.

Suddenly, what had been “legally complex” became non-negotiable.

What has the reaction been?

It would not be an exaggeration to say that Germany has been in a state of heightened agitation over the past few days.

Der Spiegel, Germany’s leading political magazine, published an article speculating on whether Trump might eventually kidnap a German chancellor. What if the AfD ended up being banned? Would their friends in the MAGA movement attempt regime change in Germany, the article asked. “If Merz were still chancellor, would he have to expect a special unit of the US armed forces to lift off from Ramstein Air Base at night in Chinook helicopters and head for the Sauerland (where Merz lives) to drag the chancellor and his wife out of bed?”

Trump is “drunk on his own power,” the Süddeutsche Zeitung warned, and Greenland is “an easy military target of high strategic value that fits perfectly into his imperialist patterns of behaviour.”

Katharina Dröge, the Greens’ parliamentary leader, said that it was “fatal” for Germany to stay silent on Trump’s breaches of international law. “No one can rule out the possibility that Trump will act in the same way toward other countries,” she said. Further to the left, Die Linke described the abduction of Maduro as “terrorism” and called on Germany to impose “the same sanctions” on the US that it has imposed on Russia.

Of the opposition parties, only the hard-right AfD remained muted. Torn between their alliance with the MAGA movement and their self-image as a “party of peace”, they have struggled to find a coherent response. “A final assessment (of the abduction of Maduro) is premature, as the US justification is still pending,” was the tight-lipped response of Markus Frohnmaier, the party’s foreign affairs spokesman.

What happens next?

Berlin is not about to issue a formal rebuke of Washington over Maduro’s abduction, much less consider sanctions against its most important strategic partner. What the US does in Latin America has long been, and remains, a peripheral concern for Berlin. Some have even expressed hope that it could push down oil prices and bankrupt the Russian economy.

Germany’s clear priority is keeping the US onside in continuing negotiations over the future of Ukraine. Standing up for international law plays second fiddle to Realpolitik in Europe.

But while Washington could once rely on (West) German support at the UN — as it did after the 1989 invasion of Panama — there is little chance that Germany would stick its neck out for the current US administration. That, in itself, is a telling sign of how far relations have deteriorated.

Meanwhile, Berlin will be coordinating a unified response with key allies should Trump make a move on Greenland — and will be hoping that it never has to be put into practice.

Jörg’s take

So far, despite his wild language, most major foreign interventions Trump has undertaken fall broadly in line with mainstream Republican security doctrine. Washington hawks of the trans-Atlantic variety have publicly applauded the abduction of Maduro, due to the fact that he was a Russian and Chinese ally in the US’s near abroad.

Toppling Latin American dictators is something US presidents have done so routinely that the US Justice Department has developed a stock of legal arguments to justify it.

Trying to annex part of another country, on the other hand, would shatter a bipartisan consensus in Washington. It would fail, not on the battlefield, but due to domestic restraints. Attempting to do so would throw the US into immediate political turmoil. The only possible upside is that Trump — and his MAGA ideology — might be gone much quicker than we think.

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Results of our last poll: Are Germany and the US still allies?

• Yes - 64%

• No - 35%

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News in brief

• Left-wing eco terrorists have managed to cut off electricity to parts of southwest Berlin for five days, cutting residents off from heating and household amenities. The Vulkangruppe, the group behind the sabotage, said that they acted to out of solidarity “with everyone who protects the earth and life.” The same group have been behind repeated attacks on the capital’s energy system. Last year, much of the southeast of the city was cut off from electricity; in 2024 an attack on electricity cables was aimed at shutting down a tesla factory on the outskirts of the city. The attacks have unleashed a debate around whether Germany’s infrastructure is too vulnerable to attack by domestic terrorists or foreign saboteurs.

• A novel state government between the SPD and a new pro-Russian left-wing party has collapsed after less than a year in office. After the state election in Brandenburg last year, the centre-left SPD teamed up with the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) in an attempt to find a coalition that would keep the AfD out of power. But the BSW in Brandenburg have imploded, with several of their lawmakers leaving the party in anger at party founder Wagenknecht’s attempts to raise doubts over the results of last year’s federal election. The SPD now have the choice between forming a coalition with the CDU or calling early elections. Polling suggests the AfD would win such an election.

• A million people have signed a petition calling for an end to private firework displays over New Year. When the clock strikes midnight, Germany indulges in hair-raising do-it-yourself fireworks shows on its streets — in complete opposition to its reputation for rules. While these anarchic displays are immense fun to be a part of, once again this year, severe injury and death were the result. Meanwhile in Berlin, it has become tradition for youths to attack the emergency services with pyrotechnics. The CDU have flatly refused to consider a ban, saying that DIY firework shows are part of the country’s DNA.