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Eric's avatar

Events are now proceeding faster than politics can keep up with; by the time coalition negotiations start to having meaningful results, the picture may look very different. In any case, migration will likely be the decisive issue, because geopolitical events will force it to the front, in the form of three most likely possibilities: (1) massive numbers of Ukrainians coming west because Ukraine was forced to capitulate; (2) massive numbers of Americans trying to move to the EU in a reverse brain drain; (3) massive numbers of African migrants trying to cross the Med; or some combination. The African situation is likely to become critical this year anyway; the civil war in Sudan, the continued instability and droughts in the Sahel, the loss of US foreign aid will cause some famine, definitely will cause an explosion of neglected tropical diseases, and the loss of PEPFAR funding will result in massive increases in HIV cases, though that will take time to become visible.

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Gordon Freeman's avatar

You should check your rhetoric. Using non-stop words like “massive” this, “massive” that, an “explosion” of what-not, just makes you sound shrill and desperate. None of those things you discuss will even remotely come to pass in a system that is becoming more entropic and fossilized by the year.

Your hope lies in anti-entropic forward renewal, but this is impossible in a country that can only deal with passivity and false consensus

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William Frederick Drischler's avatar

Herr Luyken -

Your article is quite right in stating Merz and his CDU/CSU had a poor showing in the elections. The mainstream media (particularly in Germany) is trying to portray Merz' mediocre performance as some kind of mandate.

Unfortunately you missed the elephant in the living room - the momentous AFD victory. This elephant is so huge it in fact takes up most of the living room. Why did the working class and lower middle class flock to the AFD banner? Immigration, German cultural identity, EU takeover and de-industrialization are some of the reasons. Better try another analysis of the election.

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Eric's avatar

The AfD's huge increase in Bundestag seats is quite noticeable. The real question is whether the CDU/CSU will survive - if they go into coalition with SPD then they will for a time. However, inevitably they will need AfD votes to pass legislation - at which point, even if they break the Brandmauer and work with the AfD, many of their own MdBs will leave the party. The secondary point is among the young, particularly 18-24, fully one quarter voted for the AFD and another quarter voted for Die Linke. CDU/CSU and SPD are only kept afloat by the fact that 75% of voters that have retired still vote for them. Truly the center no longer holds among the young.

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Daddyou's avatar

This is a very good question. Why did the working class and lower middle class flock to the AfD banner while the AfD has nothing, really nothing in it´s program to improve the situation of the working class at all. Our country tremendously depends on export - the AfD wants to leave the EU and the Euro-Zone.

Only two answers are possible:

1) None of these working-class voters had even a look into the program of the AfD

2) They had a look and didn´t even unterstand, that leaving the EU will break our neck.

I don´t know which is worse...

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smellycarney's avatar

You’ll learn soon enough that you have to make your economic interests subservient to your social interests.

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Gordon Freeman's avatar

Does Merz strike you as “an exceptionally shrewd politician”? If not, why present it as a possibility? This is why people don’t listen to most “analysts”…

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Nusper 1337's avatar

Germany is a fascist hell hole of zionist shitcunts outdoing each other with atrocity propaganda.

All you need to know about any politician in the Bundestag is, that they are pro industrial scale extermination of semites and the press backs them up on this… from left to right from publicly funded to zionist Springer.

That's it, that's 1940s Germany for you, and the AFD wasn't needed to let it come to this.

The only non zionist party was smeared as russian puppets, because they recognized, that the US wanted to bleed Ukraine dry and drop it as soon as the war was lost… as it just happened.

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