My thoughts on Sunday's German election

Photo by Martin Fennema on Unsplash

Dear Reader,

We’ve been here before.

The infantile post-hoc rationalization that passes for journalism may have evolved slightly; the bar for what constitutes an establishment victory may have been lowered; the sense of panic has certainly escalated.

But essentially, this is just the 2017 election all over again.

Back then, Germany had endured four years of a “grand coalition” between Angela Merkel’s CDU and the SPD. Divided internally over migration, the government was given a slap over the chops by the electorate.

The CDU was re-elected with 33 percent of the vote—their worst-ever result. The SPD came second with 21 percent (also their worst-ever score), while the AfD entered parliament for the first time with 13 percent.

The morning after the results were announced, Der Spiegel called it “a disaster” for the government, blaming Merkel for the CDU’s “defeat.” Her strategy of “governing in silence, without upsetting anyone, without allowing big debates,” had driven millions of voters into the hands of the far-right, they argued.

Enough of grand coalitions, Der Spiegel fumed! Now was the time for a three-way government between the CDU, the Greens, and the FDP. “This gives hope for new impetus: above all, for a modernization of the German economy with a green touch.”

That three-way coalition never materialized—the FDP got cold feet, and the SPD reluctantly returned to government with the CDU for another four years.

During her 2017 victory speech, Merkel admitted the result was disappointing. “Let’s not beat about the bush, we had hoped for better,” she said, before reminding her audience that it was a respectable score for a party that had been in power for twelve years.

Behind her, a banner displayed two words: Die Mitte (the center ground).

On the AfD’s success, Merkel called for reflection. “We will undertake an extensive analysis,” she promised. “We want to win back AfD voters by listening to their concerns and fears, but most of all through good policies.”

Fast forward eight years, and that thoughtful analysis hasn't paid off. On Sunday, ten million Germans voted for a party that opponents claim represents a rebirth of National Socialism.

Preceding the election, a three-way government with the Greens and FDP as junior partners to the SPD collapsed. Despite being in opposition, the CDU only mustered 29 percent of the vote—four points lower than in Merkel’s 2017 “disaster.”

Curious. A three-party coalition was supposed to rescue German democracy from the monotony of grand coalitions. But together, the coalition parties could only manage 32 percent with the SPD falling to a new low of 16 percent and the FDP failing to even return to parliament.

And this after three years of supposedly reviving democracy—by publicly wrangling over the fine print of every piece of legislation.

What could be the solution this time? Don’t worry—the German press has the answer!

As Der Spiegel insightfully observed this morning, “with their endless bickering, the Scholz government gave ammunition to all those who claim that compromises are useless. They strengthened the opponents of liberal democracy by giving voters the impression that democracy is dysfunctional.”

Yes, the problem these past three years was too much talking—it unsettled the poor public! No wonder so many voted for the AfD.

What Germany needs, according to Der Spiegel, is a chancellor who can make people feel safe again.

If CDU leader Friedrich Merz is to save liberal democracy, the magazine mused, “he must first and foremost give voters a feeling of security, of ‘we’ll get it done somehow.’”

Hmm, we’ll get it done... where have I heard that before? Ah yes—wir schaffen das... Somehow, I recall a chancellor uttering those words shortly before the 2017 election to reassure the public about an unpopular policy. That turned out well.

While the press has the memory span of Orwellian propagandists, the CDU has adjusted to the new reality by redefining what counts as a win.

When Merz took the stage for his victory speech on Sunday, there wasn’t a hint of humility about the fact that this was the second-worst result in the party’s history.

Grinning like a Cheshire cat, he simply declared, “We’ve won this election,” before basking in the applause of party delegates. After running out of positive things to say within two minutes, he started rambling about how he’d “never seen so many journalists” at CDU headquarters before. Because, of course, the true measure of a politician’s success is how many cameramen turn up to take their picture.

It wasn't all bad, though. Merz was handed a small gift by the election gods. Just 13,000 votes separated the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht from several dozen Bundestag seats. Falling just short of the 5 percent threshold, the BSW’s 4.97 percent share meant their seats were redistributed among fewer factions—giving Merz a slim parliamentary majority with the SPD.

A coalition that Germans were eager to move on from in 2017 and again in 2021 is now back en vogue.

Of course, memories aren’t that short. Senior politicians on both sides remember why this centrist alliance was so unpopular—people felt they could no longer distinguish between the two Volksparteien.

So the rhetorical jostling has begun, with both sides posturing to show they will drive a hard bargain.

Merz is insisting there is no time for drawn-out negotiations and has set an Easter deadline for forming a government. The SPD, meanwhile, are playing hard to get, saying there is “no guarantee” they will join him if he doesn't step back from some manifesto pledges.

Clearly, the biggest stumbling block to a new "grand coalition" will be migration. Merz has repeatedly vowed to close Germany’s borders to all irregular migrants on his first day in office. If he backtracks, the AfD will be at his throat. If the SPD agrees, the resurgent Die Linke will accuse them of caving to populism.

In the end, both CDU and SPD will “put the country first” and try to present a deal as the best of both worlds—likely a mix of state stimulus and tax cuts.

But the contradiction remains: the CDU will implement SPD policies after campaigning for “change”. Politicians who lambasted and jeered each other in parliament a few weeks ago will now applaud every speech their coalition partners give.

Der Spiegel may still believe there is a golden middle ground between too much debate and too little. More dispassionate observers may conclude that this is an impossible contradiction to centrist governance that can't be resolved.

Give too much ground to your coalition partner, and you betray your election promises. Haggle too long, and you’re seen as dysfunctional. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Perhaps none of this would matter if today’s malaise were just a passing flu. But, given that it is part of a broader decline that cannot be reversed without painful reforms or serious risks, conflict and gridlock are effectively hardwired into the next government.

The result: the middle ground becomes a shrinking island in a rising tide. We are already at the point where the first dyke has been breached. The self-proclaimed parties of the “middle” (CDU, Greens, and SPD) are now so weak that they will no longer hold a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag—needed for constitutional amendments.

This means they must rely on Die Linke, a party that wants to defund the army, to amend the debt brake. Where else other than borrowing will the money for extra defense spending come from? The SPD will fiercely oppose welfare cuts - doing so would be an existential risk for them.

I’ve said this before, but I suspect this was the last election where we will see a left-right coalition among parties of the “democratic middle.” The unavoidable consequence of a shrinking middle will make this impossible next time around.

At the same time, the rhetorical stakes have been set so high that it’s hard to be optimistic about what comes next.

It will take an extraordinarily shrewd politician to rebuild a democracy where parties on the right work with those on the right, and those on the left work with the left.

Markus Söder, Bavaria’s thoroughly unprincipled but popular state premier, may just be the cunning anti-hero to break the deadlock. Otherwise, hope is in short supply.