I think you are making huge assumptions about elderly people. My husband and I are both over 70 and have always gone out to eat once or twice a week. Many of our fellow diners are in our age group so we are not atypical. It is also my understanding that in countries where numbers of serous cases are rising, numbers of younger people needing hospital treatment are also rising. And a fair number of these are unvaccinated.
Quite frankly, I am very glad that it is becoming more difficult for unvaccinated people to go to restaurants etc. Vaccination may not be a fail safe but it clearly seems to have an effect on the spread of Covid. There are very few people who are medically unable to have the vaccine; most of the unvaccinated people I have come across are either frightened by scare stories or just can’t be bothered to act.
Thank you for taking the time to respond. I think you're talking about arguments I made in a couple of recent newsletters I sent. Firstly on restaurant visits, to be clear I wasn't talking about elderly people in general, but rather about the type of elderly person who hasn't been vaccinated. There isn't much good information on who these people are but 1) immigrants are over-represented, as are people in rural areas and people in the former east. My guess is that these are generally people from lower incomes who are less likely to be deterred by a ban on restaurant visits than someone from the middle classes. Obviously though there isn't just one type of person who hasn't been vaccinated, so the 'lockdown for the unvaccinated' will no doubt have some effect (although i suspect it will tempt young people rather than old).
On young people needing hospital treatment - there are statistics on this. The national intensive care register (DIVI) shows that about 15% of people on ICU are currently under 50. (link at bottom). However, we don't know how many had no preconditions. I've asked the DIVI and they say they don't collect this information. Worth noting: over 98% of deaths in Germany have been people over 50 (see below). A meta-study by the University of California last year found that below this age the risk of death in a car accident is higher.
On transmissibility, a recent study in the Lancet states that "fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts." (link below) If they can transmit it in a home, I assume they can do so in a restaurant or bar too.
In a state built on rule of law, do we not need overwhelming evidence of a danger that a particular person could cause before we restrict their freedoms? Otherwise we run the risk of a society in which people are arbitrarily punished for making choices not deemed desirable by the state.
I think you are making huge assumptions about elderly people. My husband and I are both over 70 and have always gone out to eat once or twice a week. Many of our fellow diners are in our age group so we are not atypical. It is also my understanding that in countries where numbers of serous cases are rising, numbers of younger people needing hospital treatment are also rising. And a fair number of these are unvaccinated.
Quite frankly, I am very glad that it is becoming more difficult for unvaccinated people to go to restaurants etc. Vaccination may not be a fail safe but it clearly seems to have an effect on the spread of Covid. There are very few people who are medically unable to have the vaccine; most of the unvaccinated people I have come across are either frightened by scare stories or just can’t be bothered to act.
Hi Chris,
Thank you for taking the time to respond. I think you're talking about arguments I made in a couple of recent newsletters I sent. Firstly on restaurant visits, to be clear I wasn't talking about elderly people in general, but rather about the type of elderly person who hasn't been vaccinated. There isn't much good information on who these people are but 1) immigrants are over-represented, as are people in rural areas and people in the former east. My guess is that these are generally people from lower incomes who are less likely to be deterred by a ban on restaurant visits than someone from the middle classes. Obviously though there isn't just one type of person who hasn't been vaccinated, so the 'lockdown for the unvaccinated' will no doubt have some effect (although i suspect it will tempt young people rather than old).
On young people needing hospital treatment - there are statistics on this. The national intensive care register (DIVI) shows that about 15% of people on ICU are currently under 50. (link at bottom). However, we don't know how many had no preconditions. I've asked the DIVI and they say they don't collect this information. Worth noting: over 98% of deaths in Germany have been people over 50 (see below). A meta-study by the University of California last year found that below this age the risk of death in a car accident is higher.
On transmissibility, a recent study in the Lancet states that "fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts." (link below) If they can transmit it in a home, I assume they can do so in a restaurant or bar too.
In a state built on rule of law, do we not need overwhelming evidence of a danger that a particular person could cause before we restrict their freedoms? Otherwise we run the risk of a society in which people are arbitrarily punished for making choices not deemed desirable by the state.
The links:
https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/altersstruktur
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1104173/umfrage/todesfaelle-aufgrund-des-coronavirus-in-deutschland-nach-geschlecht/
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext