Elections in the east: what you should know

Dear Reader,

Today, state elections are being held in the eastern German states of Thuringia and Saxony.

With a combined population of just over six million people, the way these two states vote may offer limited insight into the broader national mood. However, the results will still make headlines across Europe, and perhaps even further afield.

When the first exit polls are announced shortly after 6 pm, mobile phones across the continent will start pinging with the announcement of the shock result.

Unless the polls have been wildly off the mark, the populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is expected to come first in Thuringia and either win or place a close second in Saxony.

It will mark a watershed moment for the populist party, established only 11 years ago. The AfD has never won a state election in their brief history, and they will undoubtedly use any success to argue for inclusion in the next coalition governments of these states.

Cue opinion articles across the continent asking whether fascism is about to be back in power in Germany after an 80-year pause.

That would certainly reflect the mainstream perspective in Germany.

Earlier this month, the influential political magazine Der Spiegel featured a cover showing AfD figure Björn Höcke in front of Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, under the headline, "How Fascism Begins."

This prevalent view of the AfD means that the consensus approach to dealing with them resembles that taken with a deadly virus. Instead of Zero Covid, we have Zero AfD. The results, though, have been just as questionable as taking such a repressive approach to a communicable disease.

Humans react in all sorts of unpredictable ways to attempts to suppress behaviour. One way, it would appear, is siding with a quarantined party as a way of giving “the elite” the middle finger.

But, just how much NSDAP is hiding in the AfD?