What is the public perception of both the responsible party for - and the duration of - the massive rise in gas prices? If the perception is that Russia is to largely to blame, does that blunt the anger at the government (and what does it suggest as possible solutions)? Could the dependence on Russian gas finally become a political liability, or do certain factions of the German elite (e.g. led by Schröder and other former officials) exert enough influence that they will find a way to point the blame elsewhere?
Been thinking about this for a bit and there is another aspect of this. The brutal version of this is that the clean energy revolution or ESG ( Environmental, Social and Governance) will be done on the backs of the working poor. Three examples, our heating bill doubled (from 40 a month to 70) an extra 30€ is less than my wife and I spend going out to dinner. I just gassed up (or petroled up for you Brits) at 1,67€ expensive but working from home saves me 350€ a month, so I'm way ahead. The working poor usually don't have that option, many need a car to get to work. 3rdly and I can't find the article but Germany's "greenest" city, walkable, solar panels on every house super exclusive, at the end of the article the mayor commented that it was an expensive city and the average German couldn't afford it. He also mentioned how everyone was opposed to the shipping industry bail out, those blue collar jobs should be shipped off to china.
So the whole point of this is will we see the rise of the Yellow Vests protests here. I think it could easily piggy back on the anti vax protest.
So the point of the
Secondly the ADAC (?) complained that soon driving will be a luxury for the rich.
Hi Rob, I did an article back in October asking if there could be yellow vest-like protests in Germany too due to rises in utility costs. It's an interesting question. On the one hand there is no recent history of such protest to suggest that it is a major rallying point for disgruntlement in Germany. On the other, the potential for green policies to drain disposable income even into the middle classes seems to be underestimated by the establishment parties. Hundreds of thousands of people have had their electricity supply cancelled in recent weeks and have been put onto the much pricier default supplier - measures taken by gov don't come close to making up for higher costs.
Thanks, that was very interesting - the Economist just wrote an article that Europe is much better prepared should Russia cut off the gas, than people realise. And as you mentioned the Government has many levers at it's disposal should things get out of hand. Second point, is of course, protesting is second nature to the French.
The Greens have one huge advantage over their counterparts in other European countries - Germans won't be getting their heating bills for another 8-10 months giving him time to twist arms pass laws etc. Once they get their bills than all bets are off.
Note: those who are getting huge heating bills now are typically those with SFD, or the more well off. For me a doubling of my heating bill is a pain but no real hardship.
To that point, have the Greens said if they will force through the transmission lines from the North Sea? When I first heard the German Energy Minister speak in 2017 in the USA (long before I moved here), she spoke of the many problems with getting new transmission lines built. Even burying (because of public opposition to visible lines) just 10% of the length added 80% to the cost and at least 5 years to the completion time.
Interesting point. The Bundesnetzagentur has just confirmed a further delay to this project which was supposed to be completed this year. It's looking very likely that it won't even be finished by 2028. I'm planning something that looks more in depth at how Greens want to tackle problems including this and storage issues.
What is the public perception of both the responsible party for - and the duration of - the massive rise in gas prices? If the perception is that Russia is to largely to blame, does that blunt the anger at the government (and what does it suggest as possible solutions)? Could the dependence on Russian gas finally become a political liability, or do certain factions of the German elite (e.g. led by Schröder and other former officials) exert enough influence that they will find a way to point the blame elsewhere?
Been thinking about this for a bit and there is another aspect of this. The brutal version of this is that the clean energy revolution or ESG ( Environmental, Social and Governance) will be done on the backs of the working poor. Three examples, our heating bill doubled (from 40 a month to 70) an extra 30€ is less than my wife and I spend going out to dinner. I just gassed up (or petroled up for you Brits) at 1,67€ expensive but working from home saves me 350€ a month, so I'm way ahead. The working poor usually don't have that option, many need a car to get to work. 3rdly and I can't find the article but Germany's "greenest" city, walkable, solar panels on every house super exclusive, at the end of the article the mayor commented that it was an expensive city and the average German couldn't afford it. He also mentioned how everyone was opposed to the shipping industry bail out, those blue collar jobs should be shipped off to china.
So the whole point of this is will we see the rise of the Yellow Vests protests here. I think it could easily piggy back on the anti vax protest.
So the point of the
Secondly the ADAC (?) complained that soon driving will be a luxury for the rich.
Hi Rob, I did an article back in October asking if there could be yellow vest-like protests in Germany too due to rises in utility costs. It's an interesting question. On the one hand there is no recent history of such protest to suggest that it is a major rallying point for disgruntlement in Germany. On the other, the potential for green policies to drain disposable income even into the middle classes seems to be underestimated by the establishment parties. Hundreds of thousands of people have had their electricity supply cancelled in recent weeks and have been put onto the much pricier default supplier - measures taken by gov don't come close to making up for higher costs.
Here is link to article: https://www.thegermanreview.de/p/is-germany-facing-a-winter-of-discontent
Thanks, that was very interesting - the Economist just wrote an article that Europe is much better prepared should Russia cut off the gas, than people realise. And as you mentioned the Government has many levers at it's disposal should things get out of hand. Second point, is of course, protesting is second nature to the French.
The Greens have one huge advantage over their counterparts in other European countries - Germans won't be getting their heating bills for another 8-10 months giving him time to twist arms pass laws etc. Once they get their bills than all bets are off.
Note: those who are getting huge heating bills now are typically those with SFD, or the more well off. For me a doubling of my heating bill is a pain but no real hardship.
Also have the greens made any noise on how they will handle intermittency? Imsee this discussed a lot but mention of how they will deal with this.
It is an interesting point. One I’ll address in an upcoming newsletter
Along those Lines perhaps he could also touch on inflation, ordered to take away today and it’s kind of like ouch when did the price jump.
To that point, have the Greens said if they will force through the transmission lines from the North Sea? When I first heard the German Energy Minister speak in 2017 in the USA (long before I moved here), she spoke of the many problems with getting new transmission lines built. Even burying (because of public opposition to visible lines) just 10% of the length added 80% to the cost and at least 5 years to the completion time.
Interesting point. The Bundesnetzagentur has just confirmed a further delay to this project which was supposed to be completed this year. It's looking very likely that it won't even be finished by 2028. I'm planning something that looks more in depth at how Greens want to tackle problems including this and storage issues.