Should Germany's army be 'war fit'?
Dear Reader,
Imagine for a moment that the head of your country’s armed forces was asked whether they would be capable of defending you in the event of war, and the best answer he could muster was: “if we had to fight today, we would do that.”
It is not exactly a response that fills you with confidence.
In fact, I’d wager that in most countries it’s the sort of admission that would lead to a major political scandal. The chief of staff would no doubt be forced out of his job by an “outraged” defence minister, who’d insist that the army is absolutely capable of fulfilling its most essential duty. Nothing to see here, all just a misunderstanding.
But Germany is not like most countries.
When the chief of staff, General Carsten Breuer, admitted last month that Germany is a country without a defence force worthy of the name, his remarks barely caused a ripple.
On the contrary, Breuer and his boss, defence minister Boris Pistorius (Social Democrats), have taken flak for suggesting (horror of horrors) that the German army should become kriegstüchtig (fit for war).
In a strategy paper the two men published in November, they used the word kriegstüchtig six times. In a country as leery about militarism as Germany, uttering the word K-r-i-e-g can still send people into the sort of violent convulsions known only to the actors of ham British comedies of the 1970s.
“We shouldn’t be talking about making Germany fit for war, we should instead say that we are prepared to defend ourselves,” responded a clearly pained Ralf Mützenich, the faction leader for Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats in the Bundestag.
“We shouldn’t just be concerned with war, but also with how wars can be ended,” he fretted.
A life-long pacifist, Mützenich has been a constant brake on efforts to provide military aid to Ukraine. He still can’t seem to get his head around the fact that Vladimir Putin hasn’t been inspired to put flowers in his hair by Germany’s decision to run its own army into the ground.
Less expectedly, Markus Söder, the powerful conservative leader of Bavaria, said that “we think it's really good that the army is finally being strengthened,… but we do not share the goal of being ready and able to go to war.”
Apparently, the army should be strengthened, but not in any way that might make it capable of fighting…
These kinds of nonsensical statements mirror a public schizophrenia when it comes to questions of defence.
Polling shows that around two thirds of Germans support Pistorius’ plan to make the army “war fit”. But, when asked if they would take up arms in the event of invasion, a clear majority said they wouldn’t do so.
This is the minefield that Pistorius and Breuer have to navigate as they attempt to prepare the country for a more dangerous future.
And the two men have a major task on their hands. The Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces, are in a dismal state. But convincing German society that it also needs to adapt to the new reality may well be the more challenging task.
Dad’s army
Germany’s true fighting capabilities are supposed to be a state secret.
But nothing about the Bundeswehr stays classified for long. A culture of paranoia inside the defence ministry means that bureaucrats constantly leak plans to the press.
Thus, we found out last summer that the army has just 20,000 rounds of munitions for the Panzerhaubitze 2000, its central artillery system.
By way of comparison, it takes Russia around two days to fire off 20,000 artillery rounds in eastern Ukraine. In other words, Germany only has enough ammunition to fight a war for about 48 hours (!).
A potentially disastrous lack of ammunition is just one of the problems blighting the armed forces, though.
After the financial crisis of 2008, the defence ministry was tasked with cutting €8 billion from its budget. One way it did this was by slashing through its inventory, something it branded as a switch to “dynamic availability management” and a focus on “width rather than depth.”
What that means in reality is that an army with a theoretical size of 180,000 soldiers struggles to scrounge together enough equipment to send a thousand soldiers on a NATO deployment.
From a Cold War strength of 5,000 battle tanks, Germany only has 300 today. It has just a third of the number of armoured personnel carriers, while combat aircraft have fallen from over 600 in 1989 to 230.
Meanwhile, a decision to stop stocking spare parts means that mechanics have to order replacement parts every time a vehicle breaks down. That led to the absurd situation of all six of the navy’s submarines being stuck in dock at the same time in 2017 while they waited for repairs.
Most notoriously of all, a tank battalion had to strap painted broom sticks to their vehicles’ gun turrets during a NATO exercise in 2015 because they didn’t have enough of the real things.
Add to this the fact that German military vehicles are expected to meet civilian road standards as well as battle standards, plus one of the slowest bureaucracies in the federal government, and you have a highly dysfunctional system.
Even after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, Berlin’s defence spending stagnated at around 1.2 percent of GDP, well below NATO’s agreed target of two percent.
It is no surprise then that, in February 2022, one German general fumed that the army was “bare”. In fact, the only noticeable expansion in recent years has been in the number of bureaucrats stuffed into the Bendlerblock building in Berlin’s Regierungsviertel. With a staff of close to 3,000, the defence ministry is the largest in the capital.
Right man for the job
Three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Olaf Scholz declared his now famous Zeitenwende in which he said that Germany would rearm to the tune of €100 billion.
Expanding on his plans later that year, he pledged to make the Bundeswehr the “backbone” of European common defence.
For a long time though almost nothing happened.
That was partly due to the glacial pace of procurement in the defence ministry. But critics bemoan a lost year while Pistorius’ predecessor Christine Lambrecht was still in charge.
Despite a bloody war going on a thousand miles to the east, Lambrecht didn’t seem to grasp the severity of the situation. Under her watch, even no-brainer decisions like replenishing munitions stocks never got off the ground.
It was only when she was replaced by Boris Pistorius a year ago that things started to gain momentum.
Pistorius, a gravely throated former army reservist, speaks like a soldier. He immediately declared that he had “richtig Bock auf den Job,” a colloquial expression meaning he’s “up for the gig” that set him apart from his stiff predecessor.
Despite being 63, he got stuck into combat exercises with German soldiers stationed in the cold Lithuanian winter. It was a move that quickly endeared him to the troops.
But it wasn’t just the style that changed.
When Pistorius presented the Bundestag with a major munitions deal that will see the army supplied with 40,000 artillery and tank rounds per year, even opponents agreed that the ministry was now in good hands
“He hits the right notes, he has touched our troops’ hearts,” enthused Roderick Kiesewetter, defence spokesman for the opposition CDU. Pistorius is “carrying out his work with astonishing pragmatism,” a delighted Kiesewetter added.
Some two thirds of the €100 billion special military budget has now been converted into orders with industry. The first benefits have been felt by soldiers, who have been supplied with adequate clothing for the first time in decades.
Pistorius also had a major surprise up his sleeve.
In June, he declared that Germany would permanently station around 4,000 troops, families and all, in Lithuania as a sign of its commitment to the Baltic country’s borders.
It was a landmark moment - and one that few people had been expecting. Marking the first time Bundeswehr soldiers will ever be permanently based abroad, it will mean that German schools and kindergartens will have to be built much like what happened at US bases in Germany during the Cold War.
Meanwhile, Pistorius has told soldiers that they should prepare for life on the eastern frontier. This type of “forward presence” will soon become “the norm”, the strategy paper published in November states.
German defence suppliers are also now ramping up production.
Rheinmetall, the country's largest arms firm, has said that it will increase munitions production to 600,000 annually, meaning it will cover more than half of Ukraines needs. The company is also set to expand one of its main production sites in Bavaria and has bought Spanish munitions firm Expal Systems.
A return to conscription?
In other words, things are beginning to move in the right direction. Scholz’ decision to appoint Pistorius, an unknown quantity a year ago but now the country’s most popular politician, seems to have been a masterstroke.
But there are formidable challenges that the gruff defence minister still has to deal with.
His decision to build a permanent base in Lithuania led to inevitable leaks from inside the ministry, where senior commanders are reportedly griping that it will stretch resources too thinly.
He will have to speed up procurement times while simultaneously stamping out the type of incompetence that led to €1.3 billion euros worth of radio equipment being ordered last year without anyone thinking about how to install them.
Another major challenge is figuring out how to bring troop numbers back up to 200,000 soldiers. The Bundeswehr are reportedly struggling to find enough recruits, leading Pistorius to publicly mull a return to conscription.
Young men were still called up in Germany as recently as 2011. But a return to conscription would meet serious political and public resistance.
Difficulties aside, Pistorius at least has the courage to say what German politicians have been in denial about for too long.
“Being able to fight a war, so that one doesn’t have to fight a war. That is what being ‘war-fit’ means,” he explained during a speech in November.
Well its a start?
Reminds me of the Allies before the second world war, they saw Hitler preparing for war, and were caught flat footed. This time they see the threat and are preparing for it.
Touché Germany,
My question is what about the remaining countries, are they also increasing their defense capabilities.
The burden can not fall only on Germany's shoulders.
I am from Canada and we are in exactly the same situation here. Government has denuded our defense capabilities to the point where we are able to send only three naval members and no ships to the Red Sea to combat Houthi attacks against shipping. Same situation for our Air Force and Army. Canadian people have no interest in our military readiness and neither do our politicians.