How effective is the German army?

There are doubts over whether the German military could help out its allies if push came to shove.

Dear Reader,

Just how capable is the German army of contributing to the collective defence of Nato members against a Russian attack?

At this stage it is unclear just what Putin’s wider intentions are. Does the invasion of Ukraine signal that Moscow sees the entire former Soviet space - including the NATO members in the Baltic - as its natural backyard? Would it contemplate military action against Poland or other neighbouring countries? Or are Russia’s goals limited to creating a puppet regime in Kyiv and ensuring Ukraine never joins the west European economic sphere?

None of this is clear. Indeed, given the multiple failures of the Russian military in Ukraine thus far, questions have been raised about the Kremlin’s ability to wage a wider war.

Nonetheless, the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have been pushing for a stronger NATO presence on their territory to ensure that they have a plausible deterrence against such an invasion.

"Deterrence is no longer enough and we need forward defence in place because otherwise it will be too late here. Putin will not stop in Ukraine if he will not be stopped," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said last week in comments reported by Reuters.

NATO has already confirmed that it will respond to Russia’s invasion with an increased presence on its eastern flank thus fulfilling a pledge made by outgoing secretary general Jens Stoltenberg who warned on the eve of war that “if the Kremlin’s aim is to get less NATO it will only get more NATO.”

Is Germany in a position to contribute to these increased collective defence commitments?

If you believe the words of the country’s serving chief of staff, the answer is a fairly resounding ‘no’.

Just after the Russian invasion started, chief of staff Alfons Mais wrote on LinkedIn that: “The Bundeswehr, the army that I have the privilege of leading, is more or less naked. The options that we can offer politicians to support the alliance are extremely limited.”

Mais went on to say that “now is the time to leave the Afghanistan operation behind us both structurally and materially,” otherwise the Bundeswehr will have “no prospect of success” in meeting its NATO commitments.

Germany’s current commitment to the NATO east flank involves a contingent of 550 soldiers stationed in Lithuania, which has just been stocked up with a further 350 troops.

Whether current troop numbers suffice has been doubted by military strategists. Analysts at the RAND Corporation concluded in 2016 that Nato forces in the Baltic region would be overrun by a Russian invasion within a few days.

The German government has set a target of raising its overall troop numbers to above 200,000 from a currently level of around 180,000. But the Bundeswehr isn’t a very attractive employer. That target looks unlikely to be met.

With troop numbers at their current level “the number of personnel available for undertaking further operations abroad can be con­sidered rather low,” the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, an influential security think tank, stated in 2018.

The Bundeswehr’s problems are compounded by years of underfunding of its inventory.

In order to provide enough equipment to soldiers in Lithuania the Defence Mminsitry had to scour the depots of its other divisions. Still, the troops in Lithuania lack basic protective gear such as bullet proof vests and winter jackets.

A report on the operational ability of the army, published by the Bundestag ombudsman this week concluded that gaps in the soldiers’ equipment were “completely unacceptable.”

“The Bundeswehr can meet its Nato commitments,” insisted ombudsman Eva Högl of the Social Democrats, but she admitted that the army was “unfortunately miles away from” its aspiration to “train as you fight.”

Complaints by individual soldiers quoted in the report make clear that at their base in the town of Rukla they still live in containers that have no air conditioning five years after the deployment in Lithuania began.

The report:

During heat waves this lack of air conditioning impairs physical and mental performance massively. The review revealed that the original plans in 2016 already included air conditioning for the accommodation in Rukla. The Ministry of Defence was unable to explain why this had not been implemented.

Soldiers in Lithuania further complained that their operation is treated as “second class” by both the public and politicians.

The German army's equipment problems go much deeper than air con systems, though. A recent appraisal of its major weapons systems found that only around 20 percent of transport helicopters are ready for use. In Afghanistan, the Bundeswehr regularly had to hire in helicopters from private contractors to make up for its own machines being grounded.

Tanks are another sore spot.

The ombudsman’s report notes that Germany is set to take over leadership of NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force in 2023. That’s the force that is supposed to be able to respond to an attack on NATO territory within 72 hours.

German preparations for this role were supposed to involve exercises with its PUMA tanks. Unfortunately, not enough of them are operational due to “serious deficiencies” in their technical systems. The soldiers had to use Marder tanks instead, a type of vehicle that was last developed in the 1960s.

Defence spending has gone up since 2014 following a quarter of a century of cuts and savings. Olaf Scholz also recently promised to push of the military budget to over two percent of GDP, a commitment all NATO members made at a summit in Wales in 2014.

So far though, the improvements to the Bundeswehr’s arsenal have left little impression on the people who are expected to carry the guns.

Responding to the latest report by the Defence Ministry on the state of the army’s equipment, the armed forces union concluded that “our summary is that stagnation prevails in many areas - the promised trend reversal on equipment still isn’t taking hold.”